Is OpenAI a bubble? Of course it is. But it is already a “useful idiot”

Χρήσιμος ηλίθιος. It is a Greek saying. And it is the best way to describe the role Open AI is playing in the tech industry and for the American economy.

I will not go over all the details. Plenty conspiracy theories and videos explaining why it makes no sense. It doesn’t really matter how and why. Open AI is here and it is affecting almost everything. My point is that we should not expect it to go away for three reasons:

1. Canary in the coal mine. Google could have launched an LLM like Chat GTP years before OpenAI surprised everyone. But this way everyone is shielded from the inevitable negativity of clearly premature and underdeveloped tools in the wild. Hallucinations, safety issues, data scraping..the list goes on. Much like smart glasses. Google launched their version more than a decade ago and even then it was more useful than Meta’s current product is today. OpenAI has made it OK for a whole bunch of new companies to break social norms under the guise of some AI tech race.
2. Let’s pretend there is competition. AI searches are still only 5-6% of the total. And Google controls 90% of normal searches. Nothing has changed. But much like Apple played for Microsoft in the past, or iOS does to Android, it is useful to have a company like Open AI pretend they are the new big boy in town. New ‘fantastic innovative’ browser you say? At Google they are opening champagnes because they know that means the end of the monopoly accusations towards them!
3. All eyes on us! The US stock market is adept at playing this game. Making sure they are sucking up investment from all over the planet with whatever they say is the new shiny toy. Right now it is AI. They produce companies out of nothing and get everyone talking about them. The drama of the rivalries and the promise of the next big thing.

Sure. Some AI companies may go bust. But as long as they get big enough fast enough it is less likely. Apple is struggling to find someone to buy out. They are too late, most of the potential targets are already too big. Too big to buy, too big to fail. OpenAI may not be the future of intelligence but it’s the smartest way yet to keep everyone watching the same stage while the real power movers keep playing their game so well.